Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72c7…a095 crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$218 (-20%) realized −$167 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%52W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$180
other 37% −$47
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -13.3% -21.5% 55% 28% -22.4%
≤30d 95 -14.2% -22.4% 55% 27% -33.3%
≤90d 95 -14.2% -22.4% 55% 27% -33.3%
all 95 -14.2% -22.4% 55% 27% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 27% -33.3%
10% -29.8% 20% -39.6%
15% -36.6% 18% -45.5%
20% -42.8% 15% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses52 / 43
Open positions5
Markets (closed)95 / 100
History coverage26d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $122 $120 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $126 $104 −$22 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $79 $73 −$5 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $65 $48 −$17 (-26%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$16 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$4 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 28m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 44m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.08 · official $350.08 (match) · 301 history records