Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
72 0x72bf…24d3 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+7%) realized +$14 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$20
other 26% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+93.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +113.4% +93.1% 67% 67% +72.9%
≤30d 6 +113.4% +93.1% 67% 67% +72.9%
≤90d 6 +113.4% +93.1% 67% 67% +72.9%
all 6 +113.4% +93.1% 67% 67% +72.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.1% 67% +72.9%
10% ← realistic here +74.6% 67% +56.3%
15% +57.7% 67% +41.2%
20% +42.3% 67% +27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.13 per $1 lost it wins $7.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 38¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-37%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-80%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 38¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Croatia to score first vs. England? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$7 +344%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -45%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 +$13 +96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +246%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +139%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 33m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 35m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 38¢ $2 51m
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 53m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 54m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.58 · official $8.43 (match) · 21 history records