Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
72 0x72be…c534 sports 1483 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,505 (-11%) realized −$17,426 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%508W / 967L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$3,049est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$1,974
14 days−$7,906
30 days−$12,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,830
crypto 0% −$364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -44.2% -49.5% 21% 21% -45.0%
≤30d 685 -20.9% -28.5% 32% 32% -24.3%
≤90d 1475 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -16.8%
all 1475 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 34% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 34% -24.8%
15% -35.0% 34% -32.1%
20% -41.3% 34% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$101 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized−$17,426
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses508 / 967
Est. fees paid−$3,049
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1475 / 1483
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$110
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 100¢ $70 $140 +$70 (+100%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 56¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ 50¢ $70 $81 +$11 (+15%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 38¢ 40¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 36¢ 38¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 38¢ 40¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $71 +$123 +172%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $173 +$131 +76%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $143 +$135 +94%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $143 −$140 -98%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $143 +$117 +82%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $143 −$73 -52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 +$167 +234%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $214 −$91 -43%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$111 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $71 +$121 +170%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $123 −$50 -41%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $143 −$140 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $173 −$12 -7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $173 −$173 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $143 −$143 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $71 +$88 +124%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $41 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $71 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $71 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 36¢ $71 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $102 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $71 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $71 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $71 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $71 3h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 22¢ $72 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $72 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $102 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $101 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 23¢ $72 15h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 37¢ $71 17h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 61¢ $101 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 40¢ $71 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 38¢ $71 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 36¢ $102 18h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 36¢ $71 22h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 32¢ $71 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 38¢ $71 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 40¢ $62 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 30¢ $59 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Cloud Rising 38¢ $65 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 44¢ $71 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 40¢ $71 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 35¢ $71 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $71 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.95 · official $580.95 (match) · 3500 history records