Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bd…5607 crypto 402 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$237 (-3%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%191W / 631L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$972
7 days−$976
14 days−$976
30 days−$1,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$105
sports 10% −$101
politics 4% +$4
economics 1% $0
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 426 -96.3% -96.7% 2% 1% -81.6%
≤30d 464 -90.8% -91.7% 5% 4% -68.4%
≤90d 464 -90.8% -91.7% 5% 4% -68.4%
all 822 -55.1% -59.4% 23% 15% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.4% 15% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -63.3% 11% -30.4%
15% -66.8% 8% -37.1%
20% -70.1% 6% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses191 / 631
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)822 / 402
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 822 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 3AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 19, 10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 12PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 2PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 20? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 11AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 76¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 78¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 82¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 77¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 67¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 81¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner SELL the bug 99¢ $25 18h
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 79¢ $20 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 51¢ $5 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL Forsaken 49¢ $2 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 38¢ $5 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 38¢ $1 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL PCIFIC 61¢ $6 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 62¢ $6 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 56¢ $6 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 90¢ $20 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 89¢ $20 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 86¢ $6 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 86¢ $2 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner SELL Forsaken 82¢ $12 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY PCIFIC 17¢ $20 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 82¢ $9 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 82¢ $2 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner SELL Forsaken 51¢ $18 4d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 55¢ $20 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $20 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $26 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 93¢ $6 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 NORD 92¢ $6 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 NORD 92¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records