Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bd…2b64 world 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,527 (-58%) realized −$3,353 · open −$4,174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2,788
politics 31% −$1,569
other 14% −$836
crypto 10% −$391
finance 6% −$594
economics 1% −$144
sports 1% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-62.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -86.6% -87.9% 0% 0% -93.5%
≤90d 75 -68.0% -71.1% 3% 3% -79.0%
all 98 -58.4% -62.4% 7% 6% -68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.4% 6% -68.0%
10% ← realistic here -66.0% 5% -71.1%
15% -69.3% 2% -73.9%
20% -72.3% 1% -76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$3,192
Realized−$3,353
Unrealized−$4,174
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 91
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions77
Markets (closed)98 / 175
History coverage100d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1,457 $1,056 −$401 (-27%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,802 $420 −$1,381 (-77%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $243 $250 +$7 (+3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $175 $127 −$48 (-28%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $217 $120 −$97 (-45%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $649 $98 −$551 (-85%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $106 $83 −$23 (-22%)
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $61 $80 +$20 (+33%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $95 $65 −$30 (-32%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $63 $54 −$9 (-14%)
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $93 $47 −$46 (-49%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $62 $44 −$18 (-29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $44 $41 −$2 (-5%)
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $36 $40 +$5 (+13%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $240 $35 −$205 (-85%)
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $47 $34 −$13 (-28%)
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $75 $32 −$42 (-57%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $49 $26 −$23 (-47%)
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $160 $25 −$136 (-85%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$3 -22%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 30 $52 −$49 -95%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? May 30 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 23 $15 −$11 -70%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? May 22 $32 −$30 -94%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? May 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? May 21 $27 −$25 -95%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 21 $26 −$13 -52%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? May 21 $24 −$6 -24%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 21 $40 −$20 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $20 −$19 -95%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? May 16 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 15 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 15 $14 −$8 -57%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $19 −$10 -52%
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama May 15 $6 −$3 -49%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $38 −$10 -27%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 13 $51 −$40 -79%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 12 $34 −$10 -30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $8 −$6 -80%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 04 $12 −$4 -33%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 04 $9 −$4 -50%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? May 04 $21 −$17 -80%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 01 $12 −$3 -24%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? May 01 $76 −$76 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 30 $8 −$8 -96%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 30 $10 −$9 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 30 $6 −$5 -85%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $150 −$138 -92%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $22 −$22 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 27 $182 −$112 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 24 $32 −$43 -134%
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 24 $18 −$4 -22%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $58 −$53 -92%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $4 $0 -11%
Will Iran strike Hungary by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 −$4 -73%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 20 $56 −$38 -68%
Will Iran strike Italy by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $3 −$2 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 38m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 50m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 55m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 56m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 59m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $75 1h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $27 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 3h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $240 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,192.02 · official $3,192.22 (match) · 2252 history records