Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72bb…ef39 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-8%) realized −$230 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,763
7 days−$1,765
14 days−$1,837
30 days−$1,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$2,012
other 15% +$54
politics 6% +$15
crypto 2% −$50
sports 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.2% -15.1% 79% 29% -75.4%
≤30d 30 +0.9% -8.7% 77% 33% -71.8%
≤90d 36 -15.5% -23.6% 64% 28% -73.2%
all 43 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 35% -72.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 35% -72.3%
10% -24.3% 21% -75.0%
15% -31.6% 14% -77.4%
20% -38.3% 7% -79.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$166 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)43 / 54
History coverage195d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-10%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $111 $98 −$12 (-11%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 42¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,802 −$1,799 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 17 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $65 +$4 +6%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 05 $10 +$23 +233%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +22%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 23 $10 +$12 +116%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$9 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 08 $110 −$110 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Feb 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 02 $1 $0 +30%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Jan 02 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jan 02 $3 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 02 $5 +$8 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $859 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $12 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 1h
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $7 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $215 2h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 2h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 SELL No 83¢ $10 2h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $69 2h
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 2h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 2h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $20 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $572 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $119 5h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 6d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.69 · official $349.69 (match) · 220 history records