Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72b5…bc24 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
other 33% −$8
politics 6% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -1.6% -10.9% 32% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 21 -7.3% -16.1% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 53 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.6% 0% -19.1%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage460d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $69 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $37 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 +$3 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 −$3 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $70 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $69 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 01 $2 $0 -23%
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 26 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $36 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $37 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $37 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.66 · official $36.66 (match) · 169 history records