Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72b4…3b9a other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-5%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$60
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$70
crypto 32% −$11
sports 9% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -21.1% -28.6% 26% 23% -19.5%
≤30d 82 +3.8% -6.1% 35% 27% -14.4%
≤90d 82 +3.8% -6.1% 35% 27% -14.4%
all 82 +3.8% -6.1% 35% 27% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 27% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 22% -22.6%
15% -23.3% 17% -30.0%
20% -30.8% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$13 +60%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$10 +18%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$12 -44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$21 -70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$10 -47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +40%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$9 +452%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -82%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$5 +30%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$28 -79%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -60%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +473%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 76¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $17 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $49 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records