Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72b3…00d2 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
politics 19% −$1
other 9% −$1
culture 8% $0
tech 4% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 30 +1.6% -8.1% 27% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -16.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -24.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage303d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $39 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 03 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $36 $0 -1%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Oct 05 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 28 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 27 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $20 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $16 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $36 36h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $36 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $19 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $22 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $40 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $40 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $39 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $25 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $10 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $35 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.82 · official $35.83 (match) · 106 history records