Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
72 0x72b2…963d crypto 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$377 (-8%) realized −$276 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%126W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$242
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$559
crypto 38% −$134
other 1% +$86
world 0% −$22
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -53.7% -58.1% 29% 29% -43.1%
≤30d 14 -53.7% -58.1% 29% 29% -43.1%
≤90d 246 +13.0% +2.2% 51% 51% -20.0%
all 246 +13.0% +2.2% 51% 51% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 51% -20.0%
10% -7.6% 49% -27.7%
15% -16.5% 48% -34.7%
20% -24.7% 48% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses126 / 120
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)246 / 248
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 27¢ 2¢ $55 $3 −$51 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$21 +68%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $18 −$6 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li Jun 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $40 −$20 -50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $104 −$74 -71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $95 −$65 -68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $97 −$85 -88%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$16 +90%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $56 +$39 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $191 +$38 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 28 $5 −$10 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Apr 11 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3AM ET Apr 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1AM ET Apr 11 $38 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11PM ET Apr 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9PM ET Apr 11 $28 +$31 +110%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 10 $122 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 10 $12 +$15 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 10 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$8 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 10 $7 +$8 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 10 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 10 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 10 $6 +$8 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 10 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 10 $8 +$11 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 10 $11 +$15 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 0¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 10h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 36¢ $6 11h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 44¢ $6 11h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 58¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 10¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL DFX Peek 97¢ $49 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 25¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 25¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 25¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 25¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 25¢ $0 11h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY QUINTESSÊNCIA 30¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.61 · official $3.61 (match) · 3500 history records