Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72b1…10f1 weather 359 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%163W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$17
14 days+$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +13.2% +2.4% 66% 66% +4.4%
≤30d 291 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 55% -11.4%
≤90d 292 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 55% -11.4%
all 292 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 55% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 55% -11.4%
10% -17.7% 42% -19.9%
15% -25.6% 32% -27.6%
20% -32.9% 28% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses163 / 129
Open positions67
Markets (closed)292 / 359
History coverage48d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? No 61¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? No 71¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? No 65¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? No 75¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? No 78¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 78¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? No 65¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 65¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 65¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? No 79¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? No 64¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 75¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? No 76¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 78¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? No 70¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? No 71¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 79¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? No 71¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? No 72¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 78¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 80¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? No 80¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? No 68¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? No 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.36 · official $64.35 (match) · 700 history records