Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
72 0x72b0…82f8 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$94
other 18% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 67% -10.9%
≤30d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 67% -10.9%
≤90d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 67% -10.9%
all 3 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 67% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 67% -10.9%
10% -19.3% 67% -19.4%
15% -27.1% 33% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$100 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 78¢ $180 $150 −$30 (-16%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Over 88¢ 100¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $91 +$22 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$73 +72%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $182 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $101 19h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $91 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $103 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.90 · official $263.90 (match) · 7 history records