Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72af…be68 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$94 (+7%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day461.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 48% -29.1%
≤30d 27 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 48% -29.1%
≤90d 27 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 48% -29.1%
all 27 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 48% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover461.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 48% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 41% -35.9%
15% -26.6% 41% -42.1%
20% -33.8% 33% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$52 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day461.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $234 −$230 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$24 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $142 +$65 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$21 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$50 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$76 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$89 +533%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$31 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 477 history records