Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72ae…1166 other 31 markets active 11h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$21
sports 30% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 25% -5.1%
≤30d 28 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 25% -5.1%
≤90d 28 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 25% -5.1%
all 28 +44.8% +31.0% 25% 25% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 25% -5.1%
10% +18.5% 25% -14.2%
15% +7.0% 25% -22.5%
20% -3.5% 25% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +103% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $8 +$15 +180%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $4 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 32h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 35h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 35h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $2 38h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.42 · official $8.42 (match) · 56 history records