Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72ab…814a sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$576 (-16%) realized −$563 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$389
14 days−$41
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$284
other 13% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +66.2% +50.3% 78% 78% +30.5%
≤30d 32 +33.5% +20.8% 75% 59% -16.7%
≤90d 32 +33.5% +20.8% 75% 59% -16.7%
all 34 +25.6% +13.7% 71% 56% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 56% -17.2%
10% +2.8% 50% -25.1%
15% -7.2% 32% -32.3%
20% -16.3% 29% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$86 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$563
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 51
History coverage224d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $101 +$25 +25%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $10 +$13 +128%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$71 +358%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Jun 26 $20 +$30 +153%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$75 +375%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $96 −$5 -5%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 AND C Jun 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$25 +50%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 −$67 -66%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 24 $101 +$94 +93%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland win on Jun 24 $40 +$22 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$17 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 +$13 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$26 +24%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $44 +$59 +135%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 −$150 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $99 +$5 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +63%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $91 +$26 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $446 −$339 -76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$8 -20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $262 −$228 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $197 +$71 +36%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-12-14? Dec 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Sweden: Fr BUY 21¢ $126 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2 BUY 30¢ $18 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 43¢ $126 26h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U BUY 67¢ $100 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Cabo Ver BUY 11¢ $10 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $106 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $70 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $41 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 21¢ $20 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 39¢ $20 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 21¢ $20 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 5¢ $5 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 5¢ $5 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs BUY 41¢ $100 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 66¢ $51 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Will M BUY 35¢ $41 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $34 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland win on BUY 74¢ $20 5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland win on BUY 57¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $264.37 · 90 history records