Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72a9…5020 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% $0
other 25% −$1
politics 14% +$4
world 3% −$1
finance 2% −$8
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 -17.3% -25.2% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -13.4% -21.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 41 -33.3% -39.6% 41% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -45.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -50.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -55.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage585d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 54¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 31¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $112 −$8 -8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 07 $220 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $220 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $219 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $199 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 08 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 Mar 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 12 $200 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 15 $420 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 25 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jan 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 07 $1 $0 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $1 $0 +28%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Dec 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $677 +$4 +1%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34 Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Jan 14 $0 $0 -100%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Everton wins the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -100%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -99%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -99%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Nov 09 $0 $0 -99%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 09 $0 $0 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 13¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $240 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $240 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $240 7h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 9h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 33h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $240 33h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $240 34h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 15¢ $1 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 53¢ $104 35h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 56¢ $112 35h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $250 35h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $250 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $250 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $250 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $220 18d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 18d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 74¢ $74 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 74¢ $74 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $77 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $47 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $220 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $219 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.03 · official $242.03 (match) · 117 history records