Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72a8…0f0c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+7%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$25
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$21
crypto 38% −$2
sports 4% +$6
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +84.5% +66.9% 60% 60% +59.2%
≤30d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 27% 27% +15.1%
≤90d 31 -12.3% -20.7% 35% 35% +4.4%
all 35 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 37% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 37% +4.4%
10% -27.5% 31% -5.6%
15% -34.5% 29% -14.8%
20% -40.9% 26% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage90d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +102%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +405%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 +$13 +259%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 30 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 −$6 -81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 19 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 19 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 18 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $4 +$12 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 17 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 25h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 29h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 29h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 29h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 30h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 8d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 9d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.32 · official $52.32 (match) · 77 history records