Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x72a7…34eb other 76 markets active 10h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+5%) realized +$216 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%31W / 26L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$232
14 days−$232
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$175
other 37% −$76
sports 13% +$53
politics 4% +$12
crypto 2% −$47
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -51.7% -56.3% 19% 19% -38.3%
≤30d 26 -44.7% -49.9% 27% 23% -25.3%
≤90d 57 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 49% -5.0%
all 57 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 49% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 49% -5.0%
10% -24.5% 33% -14.0%
15% -31.8% 26% -22.4%
20% -38.5% 12% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses31 / 26
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions19
Markets (closed)57 / 76
History coverage62d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 51¢ 61¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 47¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 58¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 17¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$22 -21%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$11 +53%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 15 $25 −$3 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $200 −$55 -27%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,400 on April 22, 7AM ET? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$30 +94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin above 79,000 on April 22, 7AM ET? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $105 +$19 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $21 −$10 -47%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $100 +$40 +40%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $200 +$22 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 23 $11 −$10 -96%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 16 $11 −$7 -62%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $10 +$6 +64%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? May 04 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $10 +$2 +19%
FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026? Apr 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $220 +$104 +47%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M Apr 23 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $100 +$28 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $710 +$78 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 20 $94 −$25 -26%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 19 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 19 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 3+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Lunatic" or "Lunacy" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during T Apr 18 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $6 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 58¢ $83 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $105 11h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No $1 12h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $32 23h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $1 23h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $14 44h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $22 44h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $145 46h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 4d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $124 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 13d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $11 13d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 13d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No $1 13d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No $1 13d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 13d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 13d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 13d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 13d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $905.65 · official $906.07 (match) · 218 history records