Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72a6…cfef sports 435 markets active 13h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,256 (-8%) realized −$11,256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%185W / 250L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$2,210est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$2,207
14 days+$2,049
30 days+$1,273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$14,663
other 11% +$2,574
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -9.7% -18.3% 44% 38% +2.4%
≤30d 212 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 39% -7.8%
≤90d 435 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 38% -16.7%
all 435 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 38% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 38% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 36% -24.7%
15% -36.3% 35% -32.0%
20% -42.5% 34% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$316 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses185 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,210
Open positions0
Markets (closed)435 / 435
History coverage75d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 435 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $690 +$726 +105%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $474 −$467 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $476 −$469 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $649 −$611 -94%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $456 +$460 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $479 +$443 +92%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $403 −$396 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $447 +$434 +97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $382 −$377 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $179 −$178 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $299 −$295 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $142 +$149 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $523 +$450 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $628 +$481 +77%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $490 +$462 +94%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $414 −$414 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $463 −$444 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$448 +222%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$5 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $202 −$199 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $501 +$548 +109%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $156 −$156 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $344 +$961 +280%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $423 −$419 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $384 +$48 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $468 +$452 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $134 −$134 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $497 +$547 +110%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $150 −$148 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $471 −$464 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $370 +$422 +114%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $355 +$464 +131%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $414 +$512 +124%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $336 +$483 +144%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $377 −$377 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $453 −$446 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $356 +$440 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $429 +$451 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $430 −$424 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $140 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $690 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $343 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $472 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $4 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $131 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $27 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $649 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $456 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $478 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $403 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $8 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $50 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $279 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 45¢ $45 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $447 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $44 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $16 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $20 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $34 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $10 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $52 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $299 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $31 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $51 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $84 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $142 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $523 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1829 history records