Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
72 0x72a3…785f sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$124 (+15%) realized +$127 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$84
sports 50% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.3% +7.9% 74% 74% +8.0%
≤30d 23 +19.3% +7.9% 74% 74% +8.0%
≤90d 23 +19.3% +7.9% 74% 74% +8.0%
all 23 +19.3% +7.9% 74% 74% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 74% +8.0%
10% -2.4% 65% -2.3%
15% -11.9% 52% -11.8%
20% -20.5% 30% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$44 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$43 -86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 +$10 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $58 +$15 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 −$20 -80%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $60 +$22 +36%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$39 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$7 +220%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 +$7 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 +$6 +39%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$8 +152%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$10 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 21m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 25m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $74 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $50 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $8 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 81¢ $25 6h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 6h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $60 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $15 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $3 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 20h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $17 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.75 · official $164.77 (match) · 61 history records