Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72a2…7b65 world 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$82,634 (+8%) realized +$80,372 · open +$2,262
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%86W / 24L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$6,085per market
Trades / day84.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$173,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,953
7 days+$5,300
14 days+$15,960
30 days+$93,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$3,073
politics 34% +$74,435
other 13% +$12,403
crypto 9% +$6,489
economics 4% +$4,728
tech 3% +$3,667
finance 0% +$2,301
sports 0% +$145
culture 0% +$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.8% -2.5% 76% 24% -6.5%
≤30d 96 +14.5% +3.6% 79% 32% +3.0%
≤90d 110 +13.9% +3.1% 78% 33% +3.5%
all 110 +13.9% +3.1% 78% 33% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 33% +3.5%
10% -6.8% 26% -6.4%
15% ← realistic here -15.8% 17% -15.5%
20% -24.1% 13% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$5,064) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,487 vs −$1,080 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.64 per $1 lost it wins $5.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$173,504
Realized+$80,372
Unrealized+$2,262
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses86 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions58
Markets (closed)110 / 165
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$6,085
Trades / day84.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $35,724 $36,135 +$411 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $14,562 $14,978 +$417 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,960 $9,975 +$15 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $9,655 $9,696 +$41 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $9,149 $9,288 +$139 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $6,930 $6,968 +$38 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,980 $4,993 +$13 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,640 $4,709 +$69 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $4,253 $4,090 −$163 (-4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,990 $3,998 +$8 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,963 $3,978 +$15 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $3,882 $3,943 +$61 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,900 $3,926 +$26 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $3,717 $3,740 +$23 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $3,355 $3,340 −$15 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $3,260 $3,300 +$40 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,979 $2,987 +$8 (+0%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 89¢ 91¢ $2,602 $2,648 +$46 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $2,281 $2,544 +$263 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 75¢ 88¢ $2,154 $2,516 +$362 (+17%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $2,272 $2,391 +$119 (+5%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2,219 $2,295 +$76 (+3%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $2,035 $2,236 +$201 (+10%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,954 $1,964 +$10 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,869 $1,944 +$75 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $744 +$58 +8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $121,500 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $143 +$100 +70%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $1,512 −$118 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $464 −$263 -57%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $9,057 +$4,455 +49%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $2,284 +$121 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $11,202 +$601 +5%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 14 $329 +$59 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $7,892 +$108 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $1,948 +$4 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $1,867 +$58 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $161 +$36 +22%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $870 −$15 -2%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $903 +$82 +9%
Will Tony Thurmond advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $222 +$15 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $927 +$13 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $1,897 +$55 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $2,724 +$529 +19%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $2,090 +$190 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $2,938 +$3,968 +135%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 08 $889 +$286 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $465 +$35 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $80,880 +$5,583 +7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $90,000 +$62,000 +69%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 02 $99 +$5 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $14,629 +$240 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $25,960 +$780 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $728 +$94 +13%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $1,364 +$81 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $630 +$6 +1%
SAVE Act becomes law by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,298 +$1,031 +79%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,797 +$2,957 +34%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,028 +$41 +2%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, Jun 01 $239 +$1 +0%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $498 +$2 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $1,049 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $997 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $752 +$1,104 +147%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9,618 +$3,188 +33%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $13,275 +$1,885 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $4,625 +$166 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $14,185 +$2,865 +20%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $1,944 +$3,509 +180%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $8,164 +$488 +6%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $187 +$253 +136%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $3,970 +$2,301 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $382 +$38 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 18m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 18m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $348 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 54¢ $72 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 51m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $76 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $118 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $341 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173,504.09 · official $173,504.92 (match) · 3500 history records