Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x729d…e139 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$318 (-2%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$584
7 days+$278
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$181
other 1% +$32
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.9% -6.0% 53% 53% -7.0%
≤30d 49 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 39% -8.9%
≤90d 51 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 41% -8.2%
all 51 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 41% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 41% -8.2%
10% -17.9% 37% -16.9%
15% -25.8% 29% -25.0%
20% -33.1% 22% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$142 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage52d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $107 +$62 +58%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $368 +$543 +148%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $483 +$123 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2,037 −$1,514 -74%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +250%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 +$3 +101%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $287 +$137 +48%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,458 +$1,022 +70%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $203 +$87 +43%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $440 +$128 +29%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $14 +$17 +118%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $151 +$49 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $975 −$39 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $257 $0 -0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $396 +$93 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $182 +$33 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,535 −$584 -38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$121 +120%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $420 +$579 +138%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $249 −$249 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $188 +$134 +71%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $764 −$71 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $956 −$956 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,377 −$365 -26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $354 +$1,090 +308%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$1 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7 −$1 -13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$4 -10%
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 May 01 $101 +$68 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $168 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $911 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $368 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $107 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $606 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $483 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 10¢ $523 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2,037 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $425 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,480 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $285 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,458 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $290 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $567 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $440 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $203 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 27h
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 27h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $3 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 27h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 3d
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 72¢ $717 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 72¢ $28 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 72¢ $192 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records