Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x729a…65c7 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%45W / 7L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$2
other 14% $0
politics 6% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 +0.2% -9.3% 87% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.95 per $1 lost it wins $10.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses45 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage504d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $45 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $27 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 61d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 149d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 180d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $38 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $17 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 241d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 271d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $28 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 300d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 300d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $45 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $33 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $25 365d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 99¢ $17 366d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.93 · official $55.93 (match) · 110 history records