Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7299…3fe2 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$321 (+11%) realized +$312 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$109
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$250
sports 19% +$177
crypto 10% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.7% -40.1% 25% 25% +8.0%
≤30d 28 -34.4% -40.6% 29% 29% +8.3%
≤90d 49 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 33% +9.7%
all 49 +2.8% -7.0% 33% 33% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 33% +9.7%
10% -15.9% 31% -0.8%
15% -24.0% 31% -10.4%
20% -31.5% 31% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$18 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage64d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $237 $196 −$41 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $102 $140 +$39 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $106 $117 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $54 +$129 +238%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $100 +$140 +139%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $68 −$23 -34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $40 +$21 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 +$17 +67%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +107%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 05 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $41 −$29 -71%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $185 +$153 +82%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $98 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 23 $5 +$23 +422%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 +$40 +262%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 −$98 -96%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $65 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 17 $11 +$23 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 17 $25 $0 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $305 +$215 +70%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 11 $20 +$87 +424%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$42 +423%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: B BUY $13 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $54 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $54 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $80 8d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $113 10d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $240 10d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $100 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $100 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $43 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 11d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.78 · official $465.78 · 187 history records