Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7296…2f95 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+6%) realized +$43 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$29
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$6
politics 30% $0
tech 14% +$4
sports 12% +$20
world 10% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.1% -7.7% 50% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 11 +15.1% +4.2% 91% 45% -2.9%
≤90d 16 +10.2% -0.3% 81% 38% -3.0%
all 16 +10.2% -0.3% 81% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 38% -3.0%
10% -9.8% 25% -12.3%
15% -18.6% 19% -20.8%
20% -26.5% 6% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.83 per $1 lost it wins $13.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage149d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 88¢ 88¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 82¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 29 $93 +$4 +4%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 29 $113 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $70 +$19 +27%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +43%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -14%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 24 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? May 08 $1 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? May 08 $2 $0 +5%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY No 63¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $52 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $59 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $97 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 82¢ $113 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $93 9d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $113 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 9d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 89¢ $46 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $68 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $63 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $70 21d
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $46 21d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 35d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Aurora 70¢ $2 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 35d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 35d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 85¢ $1 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 85¢ $1 51d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1 51d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1 51d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.11 · official $199.11 (match) · 80 history records