Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7291…78e2 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$935 (-13%) realized −$935 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%58W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$90
14 days−$11
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$655
other 37% −$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -28.3% -35.2% 47% 47% -15.7%
≤30d 62 -16.8% -24.7% 53% 52% -17.3%
≤90d 111 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 51% -21.2%
all 111 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 51% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 51% -21.2%
10% -21.6% 49% -28.8%
15% -29.2% 36% -35.7%
20% -36.1% 22% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$54 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$935
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses58 / 53
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage50d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $121 +$44 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $175 +$45 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $167 −$166 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $177 +$60 +34%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $127 −$126 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $166 +$46 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $124 −$1 -1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $121 +$46 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 09 $21 +$9 +45%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $3 +$2 +54%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $120 −$2 -2%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $208 +$71 +34%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $14 −$13 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $6 +$4 +72%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 07 $13 +$7 +49%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 03 $26 −$2 -7%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Clo Jun 02 $64 +$26 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $3 +$2 +49%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 01 $62 −$61 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MP Jun 01 $8 +$2 +33%
ITF Gimcheon: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 01 $8 +$3 +45%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $47 +$36 +76%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $83 +$27 +32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $3 +$2 +48%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $20 +$5 +24%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MPL Phili May 30 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $22 −$21 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO5) - MPL Philip May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 29 $47 +$33 +70%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $14 −$13 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $127 +$6 +5%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 27 $13 −$13 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $41 +$23 +57%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 26 $12 +$1 +11%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? May 25 $84 +$23 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $165 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $8 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $14 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $175 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $167 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $121 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $40 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $87 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $23 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 82¢ $122 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $166 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $41 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $20 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 82¢ $124 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $139 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $121 9d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu BUY GenOne 69¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu BUY GenOne 69¢ $17 9d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu BUY GenOne 69¢ $0 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $37 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 37¢ $2 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 64¢ $112 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 51¢ $26 10d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 10d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 72¢ $92 10d
Games Total: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records