Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
72 0x728c…4e58 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$256 (+10%) realized +$257 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%36W / 31L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$243
other 14% +$11
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -33.9% -40.2% 50% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 2 -33.9% -40.2% 50% 50% -13.6%
all 67 +17.2% +6.0% 54% 51% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 51% -0.5%
10% -4.1% 45% -10.1%
15% -13.4% 31% -18.7%
20% -21.9% 25% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$26 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses36 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage494d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 23 $15 −$14 -98%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? Mar 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss Mar 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 10 $32 +$20 +61%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 20 $15 +$45 +300%
Kings vs. Thunder Oct 29 $39 +$11 +28%
Athletics vs. Red Sox Sep 19 $42 +$58 +138%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Sep 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Steelers vs. Jaguars Aug 11 $13 +$24 +186%
Nationals vs. Cardinals Jul 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Padres vs. Brewers Jun 09 $15 +$24 +163%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights May 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Devils May 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Pelicans vs. Bucks Apr 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Apr 02 $29 −$23 -78%
Suns vs. Bucks Apr 01 $33 −$1 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Apr 01 $76 +$24 +32%
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Mar 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Red Wings vs. Avalanche Mar 28 $37 +$14 +37%
Grand Canyon vs. Maryland Mar 25 $83 +$17 +20%
Hawks vs. Hornets Mar 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets Mar 16 $23 +$15 +64%
Will Barcelona vs. Benfica end in a draw? Mar 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 11 $49 +$17 +35%
Will AZ Alkmaar vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Mar 09 $75 +$25 +33%
Jets vs. Islanders Mar 06 $20 +$34 +170%
Blues vs. Stars Mar 04 $37 +$17 +47%
Pacers vs. Heat Mar 02 $58 +$92 +156%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Feb 28 $30 +$56 +186%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks Feb 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Feb 24 $38 +$13 +33%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Feb 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Rockets vs. Jazz Feb 23 $22 +$63 +285%
Oilers vs. Flyers Feb 23 $36 +$64 +178%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Feb 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Feb 22 $23 +$15 +64%
Thunder vs. Jazz Feb 22 $102 +$10 +10%
Bulls vs. Knicks Feb 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Feb 21 $45 +$16 +35%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-19? Feb 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Feb 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Feb 20 $12 +$68 +567%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Celtic end in a draw? Feb 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-18? Feb 19 $18 +$19 +104%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18? Feb 19 $26 +$64 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $39 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $11 2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $47 2h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $38 8d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 29d
Suns vs. Raptors BUY Suns 37¢ $13 100d
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 122d
Miami vs. Ole Miss BUY Miami 62¢ $32 164d
Thunder vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 25¢ $15 184d
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss BUY Florida Gators 20¢ $2 218d
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss BUY Florida Gators 20¢ $10 218d
Kings vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 78¢ $39 235d
Athletics vs. Red Sox BUY Athletics 42¢ $42 276d
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? BUY Yes $6 314d
Steelers vs. Jaguars BUY Steelers 35¢ $13 316d
Nationals vs. Cardinals BUY Nationals 43¢ $22 345d
Padres vs. Brewers BUY Padres 38¢ $15 378d
Oilers vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 56¢ $56 409d
Hurricanes vs. Devils BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $31 422d
Pelicans vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 90¢ $90 437d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 445d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester United end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 445d
Suns vs. Bucks SELL Suns 32¢ $32 445d
Suns vs. Bucks BUY Suns 33¢ $33 445d
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 76¢ $76 448d
Kentucky vs. Tennessee BUY Kentucky 36¢ $18 450d
Red Wings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 73¢ $37 453d
Grand Canyon vs. Maryland BUY Maryland 83¢ $83 457d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.48 · official $107.48 (match) · 140 history records