Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7287…6d9a other 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$561 (-1%) realized −$561 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%20W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$835per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$14
30 days−$1,084
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$46
other 36% +$715
sports 19% −$1,253
world 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 86 -16.5% -24.4% 8% 2% -10.9%
all 121 -4.6% -13.7% 17% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 9% -10.0%
10% -22.0% 9% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 8% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,225) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$23 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized−$561
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses20 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage125d
Avg bet$835
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $510 $511 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,279 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $851 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $3,165 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 04 $357 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $500 −$1 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 21 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $805 +$1,067 +133%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,520 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,407 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,490 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $2,044 −$8 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,307 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3,367 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $726 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $2,728 −$4 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $476 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1,987 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $499 8m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $478 22h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $479 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $462 40h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $462 42h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $511 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $811 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $699 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $700 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $856 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $804 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $805 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $850 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $851 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $920 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $921 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $833 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $834 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $728 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $730 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $720 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $721 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $828 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $830 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $357 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $357 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $435 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.72 · official $510.72 (match) · 384 history records