Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x7287…5375 weather 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%110W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$32
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 110 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 110 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 110 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$554) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,487
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses110 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)110 / 116
History coverage11d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $282 $282 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $208 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $134 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 18 $471 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $343 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 18 $217 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $977 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $507 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $993 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $488 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 17 $642 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $158 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 17 $280 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 17 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $171 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $882 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $426 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,379 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $577 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $260 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $172 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $393 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $908 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $422 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 15 $190 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 15 $686 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,201 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $473 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $696 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $216 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $127 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $282 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $208 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $91 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $134 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $554 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 8h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $38 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $15 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $18 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $373 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $343 15h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $81 15h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $217 15h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $471 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $507 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $977 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $993 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $466 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $158 39h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $280 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,486.97 · official $1,486.97 (match) · 263 history records