Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7287…56d5 crypto 1156 markets active 5d ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,361 (+11%) realized +$5,361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate70%812W / 344L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$324
14 days−$324
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$493
other 15% +$747
politics 6% +$230
tech 3% −$476
sports 0% +$5,368
world 0% −$101
economics 0% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.7% -54.5% 0% 0% -43.6%
≤30d 7 -49.7% -54.5% 0% 0% -43.6%
≤90d 617 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 40% -12.1%
all 1156 -0.8% -10.3% 70% 47% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 47% -1.5%
10% -18.8% 13% -10.9%
15% -26.7% 3% -19.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses812 / 344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1156 / 1156
History coverage626d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1156 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $199 −$115 -58%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $164 −$54 -33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $206 −$80 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $239 −$26 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $100 −$45 -45%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 12 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 12 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 12 $19 −$8 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 10 $39 −$17 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 10 $40 −$17 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 10 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 10 $39 −$19 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 10 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 10 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 10 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 10 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 09 $39 −$28 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 09 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 09 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 09 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 09 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $39 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 09 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 09 $40 −$23 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 09 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 09 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 09 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 08 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 08 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 08 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 08 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 08 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 08 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $21 −$10 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 43¢ $100 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 65¢ $99 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 65¢ $57 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 25¢ $107 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 2¢ $0 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 63¢ $9 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 17¢ $42 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 52¢ $82 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 18¢ $72 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 18¢ $74 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 5¢ $37 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 40¢ $205 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $206 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $3 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $5 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 8¢ $1 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2630 history records