trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 97¢ | 97¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 13 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1,319 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | May 18 | $72 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | May 18 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | May 07 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | Mar 23 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Mar 07 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Feb 27 | $154 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Feb 27 | $127 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 27 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Feb 27 | $347 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Feb 27 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? | Feb 26 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Feb 26 | $87 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 26 | $132 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Binance be accused of insider trading? | Feb 26 | $150 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Feb 25 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | Feb 25 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Feb 24 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 23 | $331 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | Feb 23 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Feb 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly | Feb 19 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.6% | -8.9% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 25 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.2% |