Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x727b…a85a other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$2
politics 20% −$6
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% −$37
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -1.9% -11.2% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 102 -1.9% -11.2% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 6% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage87d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $392 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $220 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $339 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $338 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $376 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $191 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 07 $380 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $322 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $353 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $310 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $185 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $382 −$2 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $391 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $374 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $330 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $368 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $29 17h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $30 19h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $109 42h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $42 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.33 · official $139.33 (match) · 289 history records