Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7278…d416 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$85
other 10% +$33
sports 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 30% -14.2%
≤30d 69 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 30% -14.2%
≤90d 69 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 30% -14.2%
all 69 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 30% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 30% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 29% -22.4%
15% -26.7% 28% -29.9%
20% -33.9% 25% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$16 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$18 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records