Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7275…8b45 crypto 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (357 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,444 (-15%) realized −$13,278 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%261W / 292L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day356.6pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,752
7 days−$9,920
14 days−$10,431
30 days−$10,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4,054
sports 13% +$263
other 5% −$1,122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (357 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -19.6% -27.3% 51% 29% -21.1%
≤30d 553 -20.9% -28.5% 47% 31% -19.5%
≤90d 553 -20.9% -28.5% 47% 31% -19.5%
all 553 -20.9% -28.5% 47% 31% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover356.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 31% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 29% -27.2%
15% -41.6% 26% -34.2%
20% -47.3% 22% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$90 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$13,278
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses261 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions2
Markets (closed)553 / 533
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$169
Trades / day356.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 50¢ 44¢ $125 $109 −$16 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 64¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$50 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $510 −$510 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $858 −$858 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $1,728 −$1,728 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $119 +$116 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $97 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $86 +$64 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $90 +$110 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$23 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $156 −$99 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $152 +$90 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $250 +$250 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $70 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$48 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $119 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $97 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 19m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $125 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $75 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $78 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $46 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $45 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $47 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $93 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.87 · official $108.87 (match) · 3500 history records