Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x7274…c205
weather · 860 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$240 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$234 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$234
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses734 / 122
Open positions4
Markets (closed)856 / 860
History coverage286d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 856 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$66
14 days−$174
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 26¢ 60¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Yes 83¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% +$245
crypto 4% +$2
other 1% −$6
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 44m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 89¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +7.7% -2.5% 92% 20% -3.6%
≤30d 555 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 23% -8.4%
≤90d 849 +4.3% -5.6% 86% 23% -5.2%
all 856 +4.4% -5.5% 86% 23% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 23% -5.1%
10% -14.5% 14% -14.2%
15% -22.8% 10% -22.5%
20% -30.4% 7% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.36 · official $29.36 (match) · 1857 history records