Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7272…5d6d crypto 838 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,001 (-2%) realized −$969 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%275W / 577L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$192
14 days−$237
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$124
other 1% −$89
weather 0% +$36
sports 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -20.1% -27.7% 14% 14% -45.0%
≤30d 852 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 28% -10.5%
≤90d 852 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 28% -10.5%
all 852 -7.5% -16.3% 32% 28% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 28% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 28% -19.1%
15% -31.6% 6% -26.9%
20% -38.3% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$969
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses275 / 577
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)852 / 838
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 26¢ $20 $7 −$12 (-63%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$39 +1549%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$23 +116%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$35 +384%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 11 $9 +$13 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$16 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 11 $11 +$76 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 33¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 34¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 34¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $10 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $20 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $20 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $20 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $33 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $10 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 46h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 41¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.26 · official $87.26 (match) · 3500 history records