Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
72 0x7271…f32e crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$317 (-2%) realized −$317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate82%105W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$1
14 days−$120
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.6% -9.0% 88% 51% -6.7%
≤30d 107 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 53% -11.1%
≤90d 128 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 52% -9.9%
all 128 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 52% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 52% -9.9%
10% -21.1% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$83 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses105 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage44d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$45 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $43 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$43 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $58 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $39 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $54 −$49 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $73 +$16 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $33 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $45 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $57 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $42 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $54 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records