Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7271…21fa crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-6%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$68
finance 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +76.0% +59.3% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤30d 19 +35.4% +22.5% 42% 42% -22.8%
≤90d 30 +8.8% -1.5% 40% 40% -27.8%
all 32 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 38% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 38% -31.7%
10% -16.5% 34% -38.2%
15% -24.6% 34% -44.2%
20% -32.0% 31% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage165d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$45 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$20 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 26 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records