Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

72 0x7270…0d06 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate95%21W / 1L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$277per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$1

30 days+$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.3%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	3	+1.2%	-8.4%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤90d	6	+0.7%	-8.9%	100%	0%	-8.9%
all	22	-4.2%	-13.3%	95%	0%	-9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.3%	0%	-9.8%
10%	-21.6%	0%	-18.4%
15%	-29.2%	0%	-26.3%
20%	-36.1%	0%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$623) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -9% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized−$17

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses21 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage189d

Avg bet$277

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	99¢	98¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$36	$0	+0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$36	$0	+0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Jun 18	$35	+$1	+3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9?	May 09	$35	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 2	May 08	$35	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 14°C or below on March 23?	Apr 27	$34	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9?	Mar 22	$38	$0	+1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	Mar 09	$38	$0	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	Mar 02	$38	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 2	Feb 26	$38	$0	+0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Feb 23	$38	$0	+0%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Jan 08	$29	−$29	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 7?	Jan 08	$29	$0	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 2?	Jan 05	$29	$0	+0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Jan 01	$693	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 2?	Jan 01	$623	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?	Jan 01	$622	+$1	+0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026?	Dec 31	$693	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 31	Dec 31	$1,804	+$1	+0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30?	Dec 31	$689	+$3	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 31?	Dec 30	$688	+$1	+0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22?	Dec 29	$29	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY No	99¢	$36	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	100¢	$36	3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	100¢	$36	9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL No	100¢	$36	9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	BUY No	97¢	$35	36d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9?	BUY No	100¢	$35	51d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 2	BUY No	100¢	$35	62d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 14°C or below on March 23?	BUY No	100¢	$34	98d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9?	BUY No	99¢	$38	111d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	BUY Yes	100¢	$38	118d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$38	122d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 2	BUY No	100¢	$38	125d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	BUY Yes	100¢	$38	139d
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	82¢	$24	171d
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	82¢	$5	171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 7?	BUY Yes	100¢	$29	174d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 2?	BUY No	100¢	$29	178d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	SELL No	100¢	$695	178d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 2?	SELL No	100¢	$623	178d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 2?	BUY No	100¢	$623	178d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	BUY No	99¢	$693	178d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$693	178d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY No	100¢	$622	179d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 31	SELL No	100¢	$180	179d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 31	SELL No	100¢	$200	179d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 31	SELL No	100¢	$70	179d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 31	SELL No	100¢	$172	179d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$693	179d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30?	BUY No	100¢	$689	179d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 31?	SELL Yes	100¢	$65	179d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.32 · official $36.32 (match) · 70 history records