Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
72 0x726e…aafb weather 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,202 (+15%) realized +$5,210 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate78%273W / 79L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$553
14 days+$930
30 days+$4,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,779
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +15.5% +4.5% 66% 47% -1.6%
≤30d 234 +29.2% +16.9% 77% 53% +6.4%
≤90d 352 +21.5% +9.9% 78% 53% +2.1%
all 352 +21.5% +9.9% 78% 53% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 53% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 30% -7.7%
15% -10.2% 16% -16.6%
20% -19.0% 10% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$47 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$5,210
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses273 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)352 / 357
History coverage48d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? No 83¢ 79¢ $249 $237 −$12 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $369 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $348 −$16 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$82 +390%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$31 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $251 +$40 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $182 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $263 +$132 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $168 +$35 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $423 +$72 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $90 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $44 −$17 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $159 −$21 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $125 +$172 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $354 −$354 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $257 +$249 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $112 +$29 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $112 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $115 −$80 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $107 +$151 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $86 +$55 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $147 −$136 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 +$10 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $140 +$216 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$37 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $75 56m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $167 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 84¢ $56 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 77¢ $134 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $75 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $369 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 78¢ $122 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $105 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.72 · official $273.96 (match) · 2159 history records