Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x726d…b10d other 614 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$670 (-6%) realized −$675 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%300W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$41
14 days−$316
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$703
sports 21% −$19
crypto 3% +$20
world 1% +$2
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 52% -6.9%
≤30d 156 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 41% -11.0%
≤90d 420 -41.7% -47.3% 28% 28% -51.8%
all 609 -4.6% -13.6% 49% 49% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 49% -15.0%
10% -21.9% 46% -23.2%
15% -29.5% 42% -30.6%
20% -36.4% 36% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses300 / 309
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)609 / 614
History coverage228d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 69¢ 98¢ $130 $185 +$55 (+42%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$11 +56%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $40 +$18 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$20 -49%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 −$13 -42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 +$8 +159%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $60 +$14 +23%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $102 +$65 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$42 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $29 26m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 47¢ $20 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $20 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $20 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $20 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $15 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $20 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 98¢ $32 9h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 73¢ $17 10h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 10h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.72 · official $184.72 (match) · 1255 history records