Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x726a…200c world 34 markets active 10h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,951 (-10%) realized +$1,117 · open −$4,068
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%18W / 6L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$835per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$269
30 days+$730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$3,336
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.2% -6.6% 75% 25% -4.5%
≤30d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 25% -5.4%
≤90d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 25% -5.4%
all 24 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 25% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 25% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 8% -14.5%
15% -26.9% 4% -22.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$621) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$78 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$7,991
Realized+$1,117
Unrealized−$4,068
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses18 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)24 / 34
History coverage24d
Avg bet$835
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 11 $101 +$4 +4%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 11 $75 +$9 +12%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $4,922 +$458 +9%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $104 −$79 -76%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 07 $360 −$4 -1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $200 −$39 -20%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-Jun Jun 06 $150 +$3 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $621 −$114 -18%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 04 $172 +$31 +18%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $100 +$42 +42%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $51 +$5 +11%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $228 +$18 +8%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $4,576 +$325 +7%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $550 +$99 +18%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $70 +$17 +24%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $141 +$14 +10%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $1,224 +$26 +2%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $1,095 +$93 +8%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May May 28 $947 +$44 +5%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 27 $57 +$3 +5%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 27 $233 −$231 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $24 9h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J SELL Yes 98¢ $24 13h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 91¢ $50 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $50 34h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 93¢ $83 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $83 34h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 92¢ $32 34h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 89¢ $10 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $42 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 32¢ $80 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $10 43h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 15¢ $2 43h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY No 75¢ $49 43h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 35¢ $10 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $50 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $84 43h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 32¢ $10 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $10 43h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $10 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $10 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $50 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $50 44h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 36¢ $37 44h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $50 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $18 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,991.10 · official $7,950.31 (match) · 339 history records