Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x726a…f106 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$245 (+1%) realized +$245 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%48W / 3L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$187
finance 18% +$80
other 10% +$16
world 7% +$22
politics 3% −$67
economics 3% $0
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 90% 0% -8.4%
all 51 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,212) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$67 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$1,018
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses48 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage253d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $779 $779 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $239 $239 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $778 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 22 $237 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $123 +$3 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,268 +$19 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 04 $198 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $158 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 18 $1,251 +$17 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $1,215 +$36 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 06 $1,214 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 31 $482 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 28 $1,212 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $1,203 +$8 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 18 $1,197 +$6 +0%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 11 $1,197 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February Mar 02 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 27 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 26 $1,107 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 23 $1,176 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $165 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 09 $1,242 −$67 -5%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jan 01 $193 +$4 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $320 +$7 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $703 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $695 +$8 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 24 $166 +$10 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $324 +$13 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $612 +$83 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 30 $601 +$11 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 29 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 29 $247 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 21 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 14 $69 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $97k November 3-9? Nov 10 $840 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 09 $1,336 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $299 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116k November 3-9? Nov 08 $1,125 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $114k November 3-9? Nov 07 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on November 6? Nov 07 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 06 $823 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $118k November 3-9? Nov 06 $830 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 05 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $1,548 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 4? Nov 05 $1,547 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $1,545 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 02 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on November 3? Nov 02 $1,391 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $1,174 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $238 +$5 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 31 $1,410 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 98¢ $780 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $780 19h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $239 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr SELL No 100¢ $228 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $778 7d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $127 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $647 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 99¢ $237 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $94 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $30 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $96 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $80 23d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $198 23d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $123 26d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $198 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $160 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $159 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 99¢ $158 32d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $160 37d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $1,268 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,268 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $1,251 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $1,215 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1,214 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $482 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,017.82 · official $1,017.82 (match) · 174 history records