Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7268…c903 other 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,161 (+5%) realized +$1,236 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 50L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$831
politics 23% +$1,844
sports 21% +$1,273
economics 10% −$650
world 9% −$1,203
finance 8% +$912
tech 1% −$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -28.1% -34.9% 43% 43% +17.6%
all 69 -21.8% -29.3% 28% 23% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 23% -4.0%
10% -36.0% 20% -13.2%
15% -42.2% 20% -21.6%
20% -47.9% 19% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$510 vs −$173 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$1,610
Realized+$1,236
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions8
Markets (closed)69 / 77
History coverage601d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $554 $506 −$48 (-9%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $539 $506 −$33 (-6%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $244 $247 +$3 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $211 $209 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $52 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 12 $388 +$407 +105%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 11 $334 +$119 +36%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 25 $772 +$486 +63%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 19 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Mar 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 19 $431 −$431 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Mar 19 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 19 $225 −$225 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Mar 19 $252 −$252 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $1,027 +$2,320 +226%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $363 −$363 -100%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Mar 19 $562 −$562 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Mar 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $309 −$309 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 19 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Mar 19 $149 −$149 -100%
Astronomer Divorce Parlay Mar 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Mar 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 19 $647 −$647 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 24 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 24 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $360 +$1,900 +528%
US recession in 2025? Oct 17 $210 +$363 +173%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Aug 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jul 20 $255 +$45 +18%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $729 −$169 -23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $484 −$358 -74%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 04 $243 +$22 +9%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 16 $146 −$5 -4%
Houston vs. Duke Apr 06 $30 +$140 +467%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $415 +$4 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $134 +$2 +2%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 12 $245 +$255 +104%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Feb 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Feb 09 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 26 $50 +$148 +296%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Jan 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Jan 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 19 $328 −$325 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 0m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21m
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 37m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 48m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $48 1h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $251 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,610.13 · official $1,610.13 (match) · 1936 history records