Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
72 0x7264…8121 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,591 (+19%) realized +$1,634 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,995
sports 16% −$576
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -18.5% -26.3% 28% 28% +7.6%
≤30d 40 -18.5% -26.3% 28% 28% +7.6%
≤90d 40 -18.5% -26.3% 28% 28% +7.6%
all 40 -18.5% -26.3% 28% 28% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 28% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 25% -2.7%
15% -39.8% 22% -12.1%
20% -45.7% 20% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$98 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$1,634
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 30¢ $80 $107 +$27 (+34%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 17¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Yes 29¢ 9¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals Yes 11¢ 4¢ $45 $14 −$31 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $71 +$218 +307%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $91 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $104 +$237 +227%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $58 −$46 -79%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $327 −$138 -42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $229 −$14 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $907 +$1,504 +166%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $201 −$27 -14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $349 +$208 +60%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $510 −$309 -61%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $153 −$111 -72%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $65 −$37 -57%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$231 +226%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$95 -93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $62 −$50 -81%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $306 +$728 +238%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $112 +$35 +31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,252 +$180 +14%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $351 −$346 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $283 +$201 +71%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $408 −$400 -98%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? Jun 22 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$252 +50%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $204 +$499 +244%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $83 −$81 -98%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $51 −$4 -8%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 14m
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 24m
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $46 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 24¢ $71 2h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 13¢ $87 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $91 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $58 19h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 28¢ $92 19h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 20h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $215 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $229 20h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,412 21h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 50¢ $177 22h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? SELL Yes 25¢ $177 22h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 47¢ $173 22h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $174 22h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 34¢ $47 22h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 32¢ $510 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $556 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.94 · official $161.98 (match) · 82 history records