Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7263…d771 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-6%) realized −$282 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days−$250
14 days−$265
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$296
sports 18% +$80
crypto 5% +$64
world 2% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -49.6% -54.4% 26% 26% -17.6%
≤30d 82 -44.0% -49.3% 28% 28% -17.2%
≤90d 82 -44.0% -49.3% 28% 28% -17.2%
all 82 -44.0% -49.3% 28% 28% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.3% 28% -17.2%
10% -54.2% 28% -25.1%
15% -58.6% 24% -32.3%
20% -62.7% 20% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$22 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 59
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions15
Markets (closed)82 / 97
History coverage14d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $143 $242 +$99 (+69%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $178 $179 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $169 $168 −$1 (-0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 41¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-21%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-59%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 +$9 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $88 +$30 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $180 +$130 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $163 +$101 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $141 −$138 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 +$69 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $148 −$146 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $87 +$72 +82%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $192 +$94 +49%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$73 +56%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$28 +46%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$6 -71%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $119 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $119 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $145 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 16¢ $5 18h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 29¢ $10 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $10 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 76¢ $18 18h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 17¢ $1 18h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $4 18h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $10 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $52 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $84 28h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.90 · official $798.66 (match) · 178 history records