Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7260…0f91 crypto 804 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$462 (-2%) realized −$462 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%454W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$266
7 days−$571
14 days−$62
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$766
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -41.3% -46.9% 33% 33% -49.8%
≤30d 72 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 53% -8.6%
≤90d 225 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 53% -14.3%
all 804 +3.0% -6.8% 56% 56% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 56% -11.9%
10% -15.8% 56% -20.3%
15% -23.9% 56% -28.0%
20% -31.4% 56% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$38 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses454 / 350
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 804
History coverage143d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$52 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $66 +$58 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $86 +$78 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$29 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $99 +$74 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $94 +$77 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $92 +$76 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $321 +$313 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $72 +$51 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $73 +$49 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $85 +$67 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 01 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 01 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $90 +$72 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $83 +$68 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $79 +$62 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $75 +$64 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 27 $82 +$64 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $79 +$62 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $82 +$62 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $69 +$76 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 26 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $71 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $66 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $38 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $36 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $22 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $28 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2638 history records