Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x725f…13a7 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2
world 30% −$1
politics 21% +$5
tech 8% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.1%
all 44 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage429d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 38¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $37 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $5 $0 -10%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $17 +$5 +29%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $18 $0 -2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $12 −$3 -28%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $21 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $41 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $40 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $40 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $37 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $37 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $18 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $19 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $16 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $16 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $33 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 90¢ $33 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 48¢ $40 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 48¢ $40 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $2 333d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL No 99¢ $18 361d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 93¢ $5 361d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 93¢ $1 361d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 93¢ $6 382d
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? SELL No 97¢ $5 382d
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? BUY No 96¢ $5 383d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $5 383d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $5 384d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 95¢ $5 384d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 95¢ $5 384d
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? BUY No 86¢ $1 386d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.27 · official $39.27 (match) · 117 history records