Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

72 0x725b…f26b other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$74 (+15%) realized +$72 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+4.6%	-5.4%	80%	60%	+10.1%
≤30d	5	+4.6%	-5.4%	80%	60%	+10.1%
≤90d	5	+4.6%	-5.4%	80%	60%	+10.1%
all	5	+4.6%	-5.4%	80%	60%	+10.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.4%	60%	+10.1%
10%	-14.4%	40%	-0.4%
15%	-22.7%	40%	-10.0%
20%	-30.3%	20%	-18.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$168

Realized+$72

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	60¢	$84	$87	+$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$82	$82	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$105	+$63	+60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$28	+$14	+49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$62	+$1	+2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 24	$100	+$11	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$83	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$86	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$169	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$105	41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	97¢	$62	47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	61¢	$21	47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	66¢	$28	47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.16 · official $168.16 (match) · 12 history records