Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x725a…018a other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$134 (-9%) realized +$29 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$68
crypto 13% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.1% -23.2% 28% 28% -16.6%
≤30d 18 -15.1% -23.2% 28% 28% -16.6%
≤90d 18 -15.1% -23.2% 28% 28% -16.6%
all 18 -15.1% -23.2% 28% 28% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 28% -16.6%
10% -30.6% 28% -24.6%
15% -37.3% 28% -31.9%
20% -43.4% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$55 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$45 +443%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$18 -17%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +157%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$13 -62%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $194 +$306 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $174 +$76 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $56 18m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 42m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 52m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 22h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 28h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 28h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 28h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 38h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 38h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $85 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 47h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 47h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 56¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 28¢ $74 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $77 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $116 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.61 · official $7.91 · 34 history records